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Danish researchers can predict Trump’s COVID-19 bout … roughly

Christian Wenande
October 3rd, 2020


This article is more than 4 years old.

Researchers at the University of Copenhagen can use a data model to show how the virus will impact the US president 

Trump is facing an important next few days (photo: Flickr/Gage Skidmore)

Media around the world are on high alert following the revelation that US President Donald Trump has contracted the coronavirus.

Now, Danish researchers at the University of Copenhagen (KU), in co-operation with  Rigshospitalet and Bispebjerg Hospital, have revealed they can offer a decent prediction on the outcome of Trump’s battle with COVID-19.

Yesterday evening’s prediction included a calculation that, based on experiences with Danes with a similar profile, Trump would have above a 50 percent chance of being hospitalised. 

READ ALSO: Early days … but stats suggest coronavirus second wave may be slowing in Denmark

Plenty of uncertainty
More alarming, however, was that the Danish researchers also predicted that Trump’s chances of succumbing to the virus was at 10-20 percent.

The prediction model is made using data concerning Danes infected with COVID-19 from the spring to mid-June, which could make the results a little more uncertain as Denmark wasn’t testing as many people then as they are now.

But the biggest variability factor is that Trump is reported to have tested positive without any symptoms – the data used by the Danes are based on patients with symptoms. 

“It’s important to remember that we don’t have all those dark numbers from the spring in the model, so we overestimate a bit when we say that Trump has over a 50 percent chance of being hospitalised,” Mads Nielsen, a computer scientist with KU, told TV2 News.

READ ALSO: Coronavirus Round-Up: New world record for getting tested for coronavirus

Next few days are important
Still, that forecast seems to have held water, as it was reported that the president was taken to hospital for treatment later on last night. 

According to Thomas Benfield, a professor and doctor at Hvidovre Hospital, Trump’s profile is quite similar to patients he treated at the beginning of the pandemic. 

“Trump is like the typical patient we saw admitted six months ago:
mid-70s, male, a little overweight and has a chronic illness,” said Benfield in reference to Trump reportedly taking Rosuvastatin for high cholesterol.

“The coming days will be critical.”


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A survey carried out by Megafon for TV2 has found that 71 percent of parents have handed over children to daycare in spite of them being sick.

Moreover, 21 percent of those surveyed admitted to medicating their kids with paracetamol, such as Panodil, before sending them to school.

The FOLA parents’ organisation is shocked by the findings.

“I think it is absolutely crazy. It simply cannot be that a child goes to school sick and plays with lots of other children. Then we are faced with the fact that they will infect the whole institution,” said FOLA chair Signe Nielsen.

Pill pushers
At the Børnehuset daycare institution in Silkeborg a meeting was called where parents were implored not to bring their sick children to school.

At Børnehuset there are fears that parents prefer to pack their kids off with a pill without informing teachers.

“We occasionally have children who that they have had a pill for breakfast,” said headteacher Susanne Bødker. “You might think that it is a Panodil more than a vitamin pill, if it is a child who has just been sick, for example.”

Parents sick and tired
Parents, when confronted, often cite pressure at work as a reason for not being able to stay at home with their children.

Many declare that they simply cannot take another day off, as they are afraid of being fired.

Allan Randrup Thomsen, a professor of virology at KU, has heavily criticised the parents’ actions, describing the current situation as a “vicious circle”.

“It promotes the spread of viruses, and it adds momentum to a cycle where parents are pressured by high levels of sick-leave. If they then choose to send the children to daycare while they are still recovering, they keep the epidemic going in daycares, and this in turn puts a greater burden on the parents.”